LINK: WHICH SCENARIO RUSSIA TAKES WILL DEPEND UPON US ACTION. ALIENATING RUSSIA WILL BRING ABOUT THE POWER SCENARIO
Victor Irsraelyan, 1998 [For almost 50 years, Victor Israelyan was a Soviet ambassador, diplomat, arms control negotiator, and leading political scientist. The Washington Quarterly. Winter, 1998. SECTION: Vol. 21, No. 1; Pg. 47. HEADLINE: Russia at the Crossroads: Don't Tease a Wounded Bear \\ jan]VT99
At the same time, Russia's choice in these matters will depend partly on U.S. and Western policy on the determination, precision, and foresight of the Western effort to integrate Russia into the community of democratic nations. It is not in the U.S. interest to back a weak, humiliated Russia against a wall; alienating Russia will only bring about the disastrous power scenario and thus recreate a military threat to the West that has, at least for the time being vanished. NATO expansion in the absence of a viable Russian threat makes as little sense as disbanding NATO would have made during the Cold War; the West cannot take such a step without undermining both arms control treaties with Russia and the course of democratic reforms in Russia.