ANSWERS: CHINA IS MILITARILY INCAPABLE OF INVADING TAIWAN
CHINA CANNOT SUCCESSFULLY INVADE TAIWAN OR THREATEN THEM WITH MISSILES
GERALD SEGAL, Director of Studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, Foreign Affairs September, 1999 / October, 1999; Pg. 24 HEADLINE: Does China Matter? // ln-10/99-acs
Beijing clearly is a serious menace to Taiwan, but even Taiwanese defense planners do not believe China can successfully invade. The Chinese missile threat to Taiwan is much exaggerated, especially considering the very limited success of the far more massive and modern NATO missile strikes on Serbia. If the Taiwanese have as much will to resist have as did the Serbs, China will not be able to easily cow Taiwan.
TAIWANESE AIR SUPERIORITY PROTECTS IT FROM CHINA
Gary Klintworth The Straits Times (Singapore) March 19, 1999 SECTION: Commentary Analysis; Pg. 51 HEADLINE: Missile system will provoke China // lnu-acs
At the end of the day, Taiwan's survival depends on its technically more advanced airforce. China's airforce has a quantitative advantage but the attrition rate against modern aircraft defending Taiwan, like the Mirage and the F-16, means China risks a humiliating defeat.
Besides, China does not have enough airfields in Fujian and Guangzhou to get the numbers it would need in the air, nor the expertise to control large concentrations of military aircraft over Taiwan's relatively small but well-defended airspace.
There is no way, therefore, that the Chinese navy could venture out.
CHINA DOESN'T HAVE THE MILITARY CAPABILITY TO INVADE TAIWAN
Mark Daly International Defense Review April 1, 1999 HEADLINE: Democracy is Taiwan's best shield against China's threat // lnu-acs
Could mainland China realistically mount a large-scale amphibious operation against Taiwan? The lengthy and conspicuous mobilization of troops, the need to secure air superiority over the straits, the shortage of shipping or amphibious warfare assets, have all been cited by defense analysts in Taiwan and 'China watchers' in the region as mitigating against an invasion strategy. The three major amphibious exercises of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), mounted in March 1995, have been carefully analyzed. The chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff said in 1996: "We do not think that they [China] have the capability to conduct an operation of a nature that would be necessary to invade Taiwan."