THE DANGERS OF "ROGUE STATES" ARE EXAGGERATED
PROBABILITY OF "ROGUE" ATTACK IS LOW
Robert J. Art, Herter Prof. of international relations at Brandeis Univ. and research assoc. at Institute for Strategic 'gic Studies at Harvard and Senior Fellow at MIT Security Studies program, Winter 1998/1999. "Geopolitics updated: The strategy of selective engagement," International Security // hxm
None of this means that NBC attacks by rogues or terrorists are a foregone conclusion, but neither does it mean they are impossible. We have here a class of events whose probability of occurrence is low, but whose consequences if they occur are high, even catastrophic. In such cases, it is prudent to make expected value calculations: a small number (low likelihood of occurrence) multiplied by a very large number (adverse consequences of the event) still yields an unacceptably large number. This is, after all, how the United States treated the chance of nuclear war with the Soviet Union throughout most of the Cold War -- as a low-probability but high-cost event-and took the necessarily steps to make certain it would not happen. Similarly, selective engagers make expected value calculations about what would happen if rogues and terrorists were to become NBCarmed, and they treat the threat as real, not fanciful.
UK DEFENSE DEPT. PLAYS DOWN THE RISK OF "ROGUE STATES"
Richard Norton-Taylor February 8, 2001 The Guardian (London) SECTION: Guardian Home Pages, Pg. 3 HEADLINE: Bleak new world, as seen by the MoD: Drought, disease and social unrest - the face of future conflict //VT2002acsln
The MoD also plays down the threat from so-called "rogue states" - the original reason given in Washington for the need for a US national missile defensive shield. The report says: "Many analysts believe that 'countries of concern' will gradually, though belatedly, adapt to the post-cold war security environment and become less of an overt menace".