IMPACTS: GENERAL: NMD WOULD BE A GLOBAL DISASTER
RAPID NMD DEPLOYMENT WILL TRIGGER CRISES ALL AROUND THE WORLD
William D. Hartung and Michelle Ciarrocca, World Policy Institute at New School University. January 21, 2001 The Baltimore Sun SECTION: PERSPECTIVE, Pg. 1C HEADLINE: Reviving Star Wars; President Bush, with his selection for defense secretary, places national missile defense high on U.S. agenda //VT2002acsln
Furthermore, even if the NMD system can be made to "work" on the military/technical level without breaking the budget, a hasty decision to deploy NMD poses grave risks to U.S. and global stability.
A deployment decision could derail Russian President Vladimir V. Putin's offer to reduce U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals to 1,000 strategic warheads each and would almost certainly provoke new nuclear weapons production by Russia and China. As a National Intelligence Estimate suggested last summer, deployment of an NMD system would set off "an unsettling series of political and military ripple effects ... that would include a sharp build-up of strategic and medium-range nuclear missiles by China, India and Pakistan and the further spread of military technology in the Middle East."
USA NMD PROGRAM WILL HEIGHTEN TENSIONS IN ALL OF THE WORLDS HOTSPOTS
The Guardian (London) February 6, 2001 SECTION: Guardian Leader Pages, Pg. 19 HEADLINE: Leading article: Flawed defences: Bush's missile plan may explode in his face //VT2002acsln
The political implications are if anything even more complex and disturbing. Russia has heard Washington's justifications yet still adamantly maintains that most variations of its plans would effectively destroy the keystone anti-ballistic missile treaty. China and India fear the US will provoke a new arms race, forcing them to expand their nuclear arsenals. Talks to reduce offensive strategic nuclear weapons and the effectiveness of international anti-proliferation mechanisms, such as the missile technology control regime, may be compromised. The US plans risk exacerbating tensions within Nato and alienating Germany. Clearly they may also widen the transatlantic divisions already exposed by the EU's rapid reaction force.
NMD IS A DANGEROUS GAMBLE IN MANY ASPECTS
Jack Ruina March 04, 2001, The Washington Post SECTION: OUTLOOK; Pg. B03 HEADLINE: 46 Years, No Winners. Aim Elsewhere //VT2002acsln
It makes little sense, technically, economically or politically, for the new administration to pursue national missile defense, or NMD. I can understand that the president would want to put a high priority on protecting the nation's populace from nuclear attack, but Bush seems oblivious to NMD's many problems: its inherent technical inadequacies, its high cost and the fact that it is hardly ready even for construction to begin.
NMD WILL LEAD TO THE MILITARIZATION OF SPACE AND NEW ARMS RACES WITH RUSSIA AND CHINA
Nicholas Ritchie, Oxford January 17, 2001, The Independent (London) SECTION: COMMENT; Pg. 2 HEADLINE: US MISSILE DEFENCE //VT2002acsln
NMD deployment could herald the initiation of an arms race in space through development and deployment of anti-satellite weaponry and space-based lasers (the US Air Force is due to test its "SBL" in 2012) and the emergence of space as a viable battle-ground. Beijing is likely to respond by ending dialogue on negotiations for further arms control agreements, expending its nuclear arsenal and terminating co-operation with the US on halting the spread of ballistic missile and weapons of mass destruction technology (so increasing the threat that NMD is supposedly designed to counter). In addition Moscow has threatened to respond by withdrawing from nuclear arms reductions treaties and increasing the already dangerously high alert- rates of its nuclear missiles.
Together this could signify the collapse of the arms control and non- proliferation regimes.