IRAN WITH WMD WILL BE GLOBALLY DESTABILIZING
NUCLEAR IRAN WOULD DESTABILIZE THE WORLD
Eisenstadt, Autumn 99 Michael Eisenstadt is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, "Living with a Nuclear Iran?" S Survival , The IISS Quarterly, Autumn, 1999 // Sj*S
It appears that Iran is pursuing a nuclear option and that it may well be the next nuclear power in the Middle East. Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons would transform the regional balance of power, and could alter the decision calculus of Iran's leadership, reorder political alignments in the region, and strike a severe blow to the international nuclear non-proliferation regime. Due to the volatility of Iranian politics, the clerical regime's involvement in terrorism, and Tehran's tense relations with several of its neighbours and the US, a nuclear Iran would, at the very least, have a destabilising impact in the Middle East. For these reasons, averting the emergence of a nuclear Iran will be a key interest of the US and its allies in the coming years. Understanding Iran's motivations, the dilemmas it faces as it approaches the nuclear threshold, how nuclear weapons are likely to affect the conduct of the regime, and problems related to deterring a nuclear Iran, are thus crucial to devising a policy to dissuade or prevent Iran from crossing the nuclear threshold, and for managing the consequences of proliferation if it occurs.
MODERATES IN IRAN FEAR THAT A NUCLEARIZED IRAN WILL BECOME A MUCH MORE RADICALIZED STATE
Juan Romero, Jane's Intelligence Review March 1, 1999; Pg. 32 HEADLINE: Charting reactions to the Islamic bomb //lnu-acs
However, what the moderate forces in Iran fear is that acquisition of nuclear weapons and militarisation of the country will enable the conservative camp to wield vastly increased power and effectively obstruct President Khatami's reformist policies, as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and not President Khatami is the supreme commander of the Iranian armed forces.